Guwahati:
From being one of the most prosperous states of the country
post-Independence, to one of its poorest, Assam has been on a
roller-coaster ride for 68 years.
However, as the country
celebrates its 68th Independence Day, the state, with a prudent
financial plan in place, has set itself a growth rate of 6.88%, above
the national projection.
In 1950-51, Assam had an enviable per
capita income of 4% above the national average. With floods,
infiltration and militancy wreaking havoc, its per capita income dropped
to 41% below the national average in 1998-99.
Said the
Planning Commission, "What is more alarming is that the gap (between the
state and national per capita income) is growing. Between 1980 and
1990, per capita income (at 1980-81 prices) grew by 20% in Assam,
compared to 40% for India. Between 1980 and 1998, per capita income in
Assam grew by 10%, compared to 39% for India."
For almost three
decades, between 1951 and 1979, all was well with the state's finances
as its economy grew at more or less the same rate as the rest of the
country.
A report of the Planning Commission states, "Assam's
per capita income fell due to a higher rate of population growth caused
by immigration. Over the period, Assam's population grew at an average
rate of around 4% per year. The widening disparity since 1980-81 is,
however, due to slower growth of its economy. While the Indian economy
grew at 6% between 1981 and 2000, Assam's GDP grew at 3.3%. While the
growth rate of the Indian economy accelerated in the 1990s, Assam's
economy decelerated."
There was a fall in the growth rate of
electricity, gas and water supply and in the construction sector.
Capital expenditure for development also fell and these resulted in
fewer job opportunities and rising unemployment.
"Assam is the
only major state in India that showed increasing rural poverty between
1957 and 1994," the commission report said.
It has identified
small agriculture operational landholding size and agriculture
development, floods and erosion, infiltration from Bangladesh and
militancy as the causes for the downturn.
"Unless extortion by
various insurgent groups is brought under control, industrial growth is
unlikely to accelerate. Assam is a complex state with huge ethnic
diversity, Bangladeshi immigrants and an educated middle-class
frustrated by poor economic development," the commission suggested.
Then there was the six-year-long anti-foreigners movement which stalled
all development activities in the state. The post-Assam Accord period
wasn't much better. The Planning Commission, quoting data over a 15-year
period, from 1984-85 to 1999, said the state recognizes the "failure of
revenue receipts to meet...the rapidly growing expenditure commitments,
particularly expenditure on salaries, wages, allowances and pensions".
There were heavy losses from negligible returns on capital expenditure
on projects and investments in public-sector undertakings, declining
buoyancy of state tax revenues and the consequent rising costs of public
debt and higher borrowings.
The Economic Survey of Assam,
2013-14, states, "The fiscal reform measures adopted by the state
started yielding favourable results since 2005-06 and moved with revenue
and fiscal surplus during the period from 2005-06 to 2008-09 and
subsequent years of 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13.
Chief
minister Tarun Gogoi is ready to scale new heights. While his rivals
criticize him for the growing debt burden, which stands at Rs 27,248.16
crore, Gogoi sees this more as a device which will protect the
government of cost escalation a decade later.
"Gujarat's debt
burden is Rs 1.5 lakh crore and ours is just Rs 27,248 crore. I ask my
officers to go for more loans because a loan taken today will protect me
from rising costs 10 years later," Gogoi said.
